Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Monday, April 25, 2011
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Interestingly, the growth rate in crude oil demand among the 30 OECD economies rose to a new cyclical high of 2.2% in March, while it dropped to 5.2% for non-OECD countries from the most recent cyclical peak of 5.7% during August 2010. This may be an early warning that slower growth may be ahead as high oil prices are pushing up inflation rates in emerging economies, forcing their central bankers to tighten and to slow economic growth. (We update these charts for subscribers to our service in our Global Oil Demand & Supply.)
During February, equity mutual funds accounted for 69.3% of the share of all such funds that invest in stocks and bonds. This percentage has ranged between 65% and 85% since the mid-1990s. So it is currently near the bottom of this range.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
In the past, political gridlock was bullish because warring factions and special interest groups checked and balanced one another’s fiscal ambitions and excessive demands. In recent years, they’ve learned that they can all get what they want by issuing more and more government debt. Today’s gridlock is all about nobody being willing to compromise by giving up any of the deficit-financed perks they managed to get from the government. But wait a minute: Won’t the need to raise the debt limit before the end of May force the Democrats and the Republicans to agree on a deficit reduction plan? They will. They’ll agree that the deficit needs to be cut by $4 trillion over the next 10-12 years. That may be as much progress as they are likely to make for a long time. (We update these charts regularly for subscribers in our Government Finance briefing book.)
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was 39.1% above its 200-day moving average at the end of last week, when it peaked at $126.47 on Friday. After yesterday’s selloff, it was still 32.4% above its 200-dma, which was $91.43.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Germany’s stock market is up 96.5% since it bottomed during March 2009. A few days ago, it successfully retested its 200-day moving average. It now seems set to rise to a new cyclical high.
What about last week’s eye-popping pop in the Bull/Bear Ratio to 3.65, the highest reading since June 17, 2003? The bull market is more than two years old, and now the ratio is the highest it has been over the entire period. That is a bit worrisome.
However, there have been times in the past since 1987 when a ratio of 3.0 or more was followed by higher stock prices sometimes, following a brief correction. Then again, such elevated ratios have also marked a few significant tops. Beware.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Monday, April 4, 2011
Sunday, April 3, 2011