US Purchasing Managers Indexes

It’s official: The next recession hasn’t started yet. It certainly didn’t start in September based on the latest available batch of economic indicators. Most encouraging is that private-sector payrolls rose 91,000 during the month, according to ADP. While the non-manufacturing purchasing managers (NM-PMI) edged down from 53.3 in August to 53.0 in September, that’s still a positive sign. September’s survey of nonmanufacturing purchasing managers shows that the new orders index for this sector increased for the second straight month to 56.5. That contrasts with the comparable M-PMI index, which remained under 50 for the third consecutive month. The NM-PMI business activity index (production) rose to a six-month high of 57.1. The backlog of orders index recovered to 52.5. The bad news is that the NM-PMI’s employment index slumped to a 17-month low of 48.7, the first reading below 50 since last summer.