Weekly Leading Index

The ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index may be about to defy its bearish handlers. It rose for a fifth consecutive week on March 23 back to its early August high. The compilers of this index at the Economic Cycle Research Institute have been adamantly predicting a recession despite the rebound in their index. In their opinion, it has been distorted by seasonal factors, so they focus on its y/y growth rate. They may have to change their forecast if this growth rate continues to rebound from a recent low of -6.7% at the end of last year to -3.3% during the latest week.

TODAY’S BULLET POINTS: (1) Bullfighting in Spain. (2) Kohler in China. (3) Covering up the Euro Mess. (4) Stocks tend to rise in April. (5) Expectations are not great for Q1 earnings season. (6) Profits from abroad slowing along with global economy. (7) Profits growth for Financials positive, but subdued. (8) Nonfinancial domestic profits should be good. (9) Mixed picture for the sectors. (10) Expecting positive surprises among Consumer Discretionary and IT. (11) Mixed picture for global economy. (12) Services are red hot in Red China. (More for subscribers.)