Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Bond Yield Model

This simple bond model compares the 10-year Treasury bond yield to the growth rate of nominal GDP. During the 1960s and 1970s, the yield traded consistently below the y/y growth in nominal GDP. It was the BBV Era, i.e., the time before Bond Vigilantes. During the 1980s through the mid-1990s, the Bond Vigilantes were much more vigilant about the threat of inflation, and the yield usually exceeded nominal GDP growth. During the second half of the 1990s, the Bond Vigilantes turned less vigilant as they became less concerned about inflation. The yield was very close to nominal GDP growth. The bond yield fell to a record low during late 2008 and remained low in 2009 when nominal GDP growth turned negative. At the end of last year nominal GDP growth was 4.1%, and the yield has been trading below that rate so far this year.

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