Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Global Oil Demand Growth

While there might be plenty of oil around, there are also plenty of risks that its supply will be disrupted. Meanwhile, global demand for crude continues to rise to new record highs, hitting 88.5mbd on average over the 12 months through March. On this basis, it is up 3.6% y/y, the same as in February. This growth rate may be peaking because high oil prices may be slowing it down.

Interestingly, the growth rate in crude oil demand among the 30 OECD economies rose to a new cyclical high of 2.2% in March, while it dropped to 5.2% for non-OECD countries from the most recent cyclical peak of 5.7% during August 2010. This may be an early warning that slower growth may be ahead as high oil prices are pushing up inflation rates in emerging economies, forcing their central bankers to tighten and to slow economic growth. (We update these charts for subscribers to our service in our Global Oil Demand & Supply.)

No comments: