S&P 500 Consensus Earnings

The 2011 S&P 500 earnings estimate has risen 3.9% since the end of last year from $95.97 to $99.69 last week. The Q1 earnings surprise has added $1.16 over the past five weeks to the 2011 estimate. The estimates for Q2-Q4 have all been rising too, and have added $1.05 to the 2011 estimate since the start of the Q1 earnings season.

 

It really is déjà vu all over again with a significant difference. When actual results beat expected ones over the past eight quarters (Figures 119 & 120), industry analysts didn’t raise their subsequent quarterly numbers as they’ve been doing during the current earnings season (Figure 121). In other words, industry analysts seem to be more optimistic about the future as a result of the latest earnings season than they were during the previous eight seasons of better-than-expected earnings. Industry analysts are aiming high.



The latest round of positive earnings surprises started during the first quarter of 2009.