Monday, December 10, 2012


China’s Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 has been among the worst-performing stock markets so far this year. However, it jumped 5.0% last week on better economic news out of China. The recent strength in the price of copper was a tipoff to the rebound in Chinese industrial production growth from a recent low of 9.0% y/y during August to 10.1% during November. Retail sales rose at a better-than-expected rate of 14.9% y/y.
Last week’s rally was triggered by China’s new leaders, who spoke about the economy after the meeting of the Communist Party’s politburo. President Xi Jinping signaled a continuation of pro-growth policies and indicated he favored government support for more urbanization.

On the other hand, this morning we learn that China’s exports fell 5.1% m/m last month, while imports edged down by 0.7% (based on seasonally adjusted data). These numbers suggest that global economic growth is weak. However, keep in mind that both have been fluctuating around their record highs since the start of the year.

Today's Morning Briefing: Around the World. (1) How much global growth next year? (2) Analysts cutting revenue estimates, but still see growth. (3) European stocks remain on uptrend. (4) China’s new leaders want growth. (5) Euro zone is double dipping. (6) Latest German factory orders upbeat while output is downbeat. (7) Italy and Spain are in deep recessions. (8) Brazil working on opening bottlenecks. (9) US payroll data not too bad. (10) Consumers don’t like the view. (11) Geithner has the power to adjust withholdings. (12) “Hitchcock” (+ + +). (More for subscribers.)

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