Thursday, January 31, 2013

Excerpt: Global Boom-Bust Barometer

I track a very simple Global Boom-Bust Barometer by averaging the CRB raw industrials spot price index and the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil. Yesterday, it rose to 112.0, the highest since May 2, 2012, and up 17.6% from last year’s low of 95.2 on June 28. The S&P 500 Transportation Index, which is highly correlated with the CRB index, has gone vertical this month, making daily new record highs, though it edged down yesterday for just the second time in the past 12 trading days. The MSCI World Share Price Index is up 5.7% ytd to a new cyclical high. 

Today's Morning Briefing: Silver Linings Playbook. (1) King of Prussia. (2) Silver linings in Philly. (3) The new hot topic: An inflationary boom. (4) The Success Scenario. (5) Global Boom-Bust Barometer looking up. (6) Not so fast: What about all that fiscal drag? (7) Putting the air back in the housing bubble. (8) If labor market continues to tighten, wage inflation will rise. (9) Bond yields rising along with inflationary expectations. (10) No boom in revenues yet. (11) Margin expectations may be too optimistic. (More for subscribers.)

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