Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Old Normal (excerpt)

For stock investors, following the New Normal paradigm obviously has been a bad investment strategy given that the stock market is up 129% since March 9, 2009. There’s no denying that the latest recovery in real GDP has been subpar. Real GDP has increased only 1.8% on average over the past two years. However, this average growth rate rises to 2.9% excluding total government spending. That’s closer to the old normal. Needless to say, the profits recovery has been abnormally good relative to GDP.

Today's Morning Briefing: The New Abnormal. (1) Some hits and some misses for the New Normal. (2) Eight centuries of data can’t be wrong. (3) Scholars challenge Reinhart/Rogoff findings. (4) Seeking and finding the old normal in private-sector GDP and in profits. (5) Yellen favors “lower for longer.” (6) Fed seeks to promote “prudent risk-taking.” (7) For gold bugs, deflation is the new abnormal. (8) Dudley isn’t worried about inflation. (9) CPI inflation rates remain subdued in the G7. (More for subscribers.)

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