Tuesday, May 14, 2013

China (excerpt)

China may be slowing, but it’s still growing. I’m hard-pressed to see any signs of a hard landing in China anytime soon. Real GDP rose 7.7% y/y during Q1-2013, only a bit below the previous quarter’s 7.9% pace. Is that alarming? Not to me. I’m not alarmed by similar marginal declines in the growth rates of other recent economic indicators.

In the first four months of this year, China’s fixed-asset investment rose 20.6% y/y, marginally lower than the 20.9% gain in the first quarter. Still, investment in the property sector jumped 21.1% during the four months, up 0.9 percentage point from that in the first quarter. China’s industrial production rose 9.3% y/y in April, up from March’s 8.9%. Retail sales continue to post double-digit gains, rising 12.8% in April. Chinese oil demand rose to another record high in April.

Today's Morning Briefing: The End Is Far Off. (1) From near to far. (2) Nothing to fear but fear. (3) At 14.3, P/E is back to spring 2010 high. (4) If the end isn’t near, then P/Es have been too low. (5) Irrational exuberance or rational rejection of the Endgame? (6) The last correction was insignificant. (7) Averting the fiscal cliff was bullish. (8) Income shifting last year boosting federal revenues this year. (9) GDP passing the stall speed test. (10) Draghi passed a couple of tests earlier this year. (11) Hard-pressed to see hard landing in China’s numbers. (12) Focus on underweight-rated Energy sector. (More for subscribers.)

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