Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Nikkei & DJIA (excerpt)

First, let's note that when the Nikkei and the DJIA are put on the same chart with the same scale and the same timeline starting in 2009, they tracked each other very closely during the first year of both their bull markets from March 2009 to April 2010.

The Nikkei bottomed at 7054 on March 10, 2009. The DJIA bottomed at 6547 on March 9 of that same year. They both rose to just over 11000 during April 2010. They started to diverge after that, with the Nikkei not just underperforming the DJIA but actually trending down slightly until late 2012.

The Nikkei’s spectacular rally starting near the end of 2012 propelled this stock index all the way back up to slightly surpass the DJIA on May 21. On that day, the DJIA closed at a record high of 15387, while the Nikkei closed at a six-year high of 15627 the following day. As noted above, since then the Nikkei is down 16.7% to 13014, while the DJIA is down 2.8% to 14960. The same story can be told comparing the Nikkei to the S&P 500 since the start of 2009.

Today's Morning Briefing: Inflection Point? (1) New vs. old stock market adages. (2) Go away on May 21. (3) A correction in a secular bull market. (4) The trouble started on May 22. (5) Putting the Nikkei and the Dow on the same page. (6) Curbing our enthusiasm for now. (7) QE may be losing its magic. (8) Nikkei drops despite BOJ’s massive liquidity pumping. (9) QE goes from win-win to lose-lose. (10) So what should we be rooting for? (More for subscribers.)

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