Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Emerging Market Economies & Advanced Market Economies (excerpt)

The overall economic performance of the EMEs weakened in July, according to the HSBC Emerging Markets Index, a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys and produced by Markit. It fell to a new post-crisis low of 49.4 in July, down from 50.6 in June. The latest figure was the first sub-50.0 reading since April 2009. Output fell across the four largest emerging economies, the first broad-based contraction since March 2009.

Too bad there isn’t an index for the AMEs. However, Markit does produce the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI. It was very strong last month, rising from 51.2 in June to 54.1 in July, the best reading in 16 months. Obviously, this implies that the strength in the AMEs more than offset the weakness in the EMEs. Indeed, Markit’s press release noted: “The expansion remained uneven by region, however. Stronger growth was registered in the US and the UK, while the eurozone stabilised. This was partly offset by weaker performances in Asia and a number of emerging markets.”

The question is whether the growth rate in the AMEs will improve enough to boost the EMEs and their stock markets, which have been among the worst-performing ones so far this year.

Today's Morning Briefing: Emerging & Advanced Economies. (1) Mixed global grab bag. (2) Global economy gets a C+ from us. (3) Muddling along in the mud. (4) Not submerging, but emerging at a slower pace. (5) In China, all stimulus will be local from now on. (6) Mickey Mouse is coming to Shanghai. (7) Brazil has lost its groove. (8) Mexico is opening up. (9) India is on a rocky road. (10) Advanced economies showing better PMIs than emerging ones. (11) Less bang per yen than expected from Abenomics. (12) US is gushing oil. (13) Euro zone is on the slow road to recovery. (More for subscribers.)

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