Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Weak Dollar Isn’t Boosting Commodity Prices (excerpt)

The price of copper sagged during the spring on concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in both the US and China, while Europe seemed to be mired in a long recession. It rebounded slightly during the summer and fall on signs of a recovery in Europe and better growth in China.

However, our trusty CRB raw industrials spot price index--which includes copper and 12 other commodities--has been sagging since the summer, gradually declining recently to the lowest reading since November 28, 2012. That’s despite the recent weakness in the trade-weighted dollar, which should be providing some lift to the commodity index.

Today's Morning Briefing: Global Tour. (1) Muddling along still path of least resistance for global economy. (2) Headwinds in US, Europe, and China. (3) Industrial commodities index drifting lower despite weaker dollar. (4) Flash PMIs uninspiring on balance. (5) Global output at new high, as US production edges higher. (6) Euro area credit still shrinking. (7) Forward earnings at record highs in US, recovering elsewhere. (8) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Information Technology. (More for subscribers.)

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