Wednesday, January 7, 2015

S&P 500 Earnings Holding Up Despite Oil Price Plunge (excerpt)

While forward earnings are dropping sharply for the S&P 500 Energy sector, forward earnings are holding up quite well in the other sectors. This analysis is based on aggregate dollar values rather than per share.

Over the past 12 weeks through the week of 12/25, the forward earnings of the S&P 500 Energy sector plunged 30%, by $38 billion to $90 billion. As a result, S&P 500 forward earnings peaked during the week of October 2 at a record high and edged down by 3.2% through the end of the year. Excluding Energy, forward earnings rose to yet another record high at the end of 2014.

Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ provides consensus earnings forecasts for each quarter. The sector estimates for Q4 are lower since the end of Q3, led by Energy, which has been revised down sharply by 26.2%. The overall S&P 500’s Q4 estimate is down 7.1%. Excluding Energy, it is down 5.2%.

Today's Morning Briefing: The World According to Gross. (1) Gross warning. (2) A bungee scenario for oil price. (3) The debt super-cycle is rolling over. (4) So is the commodity super-cycle. (5) Easy money has been stimulating supply more than demand lately. (6) Party is over for zombies. (7) Can US decouple from global secular stagnation? (8) Consumers’ windfall from lower fuel costs is over $200 billion. (9) Raising the odds of the Endgame, while lowering the odds of Irrational Exuberance. (10) Getting harder to see Fed raising rates this year under any scenario. (11) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Industrials. (More for subscribers.)

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