Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Global Secular Stagnation or Worse? (excerpt)

In recent months, I’ve observed that most of the global economic indicators suggest a scenario of secular stagnation, with neither a boom nor a bust. The OECD Leading Economic Index is leaning more in the direction of a bust, but I’m not convinced.

During June, the index for the 34 advanced economies that are members of the OECD fell to 100.0, the lowest reading since June 2013. Among the weakest components of the overall index is the US LEI, which fell to 99.4, the weakest since November 2011. Sorry, that doesn’t make any sense to me. Making more sense is the LEIs for the BRICs, which all remained below 100 during June.

Then, again the weakness in the CRB raw industrials spot price index is of concern to me. I also note that Japan’s exports and imports remained lackluster during June.

Today's Morning Briefing: Shock Without Awe. (1) How do you say “Godot” in Chinese? (2) Another desperate measure for desperate times in China? (3) Professor Copper gives Chinese a big thumbs down. (4) El-Erian makes sense of it all. (5) Not enough growth to go round, so steal some with cheaper currency. (6) Chinese are in good company. (7) Clueless in Beijing. (8) Chinese savings glut fueling massive misallocation of capital. (9) OECD leading indicators turning weaker. (10) Fed’s talking heads talking. (11) One-and-done this year followed by none-and-done next year? (More for subscribers.)

No comments: