Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Drop In Oil Prices Stimulating Demand (excerpt)

Our monthly analysis of global oil demand shows that the plunge in oil prices is stimulating usage, which suggests that the windfall is boosting economic growth around the world. Over the past 12 months through July, world oil demand rose to a record 94.6mbd, and is up 1.9% y/y, up from just 0.8% a year ago.

The growth rebound can be seen in both advanced and emerging economies. Oil demand was up 5.4% in China during July, from 0.2% a year ago, to a new record high. India’s usage is up 5.6%, the fastest pace since May 2008.

So why are oil prices so low? There’s too much supply. Our ratio of global oil demand to world oil supply fell to 1.01 during July, the lowest since February 2007.

Today's Morning Briefing: Back to Basics. (1) Neither boom nor bust. (2) Secular stagnation caused by several structural problems. (3) Why secular stagnation might be ideal for a secular bull market. (4) The correction camp is crowded with former bulls. (5) Basically another flash crash. (6) Lots of S&P 500 sectors showing good earnings performances. (7) Pockets of strength in Europe. (8) China is a black box with lots of zombies crawling around. (9) India’s PM Modi isn’t delivering on his reform promises. (10) Global oil demand confirms that lower prices are boosting usage and stimulating economic activity. (11) The Fed is confused and confusing. (More for subscribers.)

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