Monday, July 25, 2011

Global Oil Demand

World oil demand rose to a record 88.9mbd during June, using the 12-month average to smooth out seasonal volatility. On a y/y basis, it was up 2.5% last month. As a very rough approximation, we double this growth rate to get a rough idea of the growth in world GDP. So, the oil demand data suggest that global economic growth is relatively strong around 5%.

We also disaggregate the data between the Old World (US, Western Europe, and Japan) and the New World (everyone else). The former edged down to 38.1mbd, still well below its record high of 41.9mbd during August 2005. The latter rose to a new record high of 50.8mbd last month.

Old World oil demand is up only 0.9% from a year ago and down 1.1% from two years ago. New World oil demand is up 3.7% and 8.9% over those same two periods.

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