Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Core Inflation Rates

The trend for core CPI inflation among the 30-member countries of the OECD is still relatively subdued. The OECD rate, excluding food and energy, moved up to 1.7% y/y in May from 1.2% at the start of the year. It was at a record low of 1.1% in September and October of last year. It peaked at 2.4% in the fall of 2008.
The CPI inflation in the US is also still relatively subdued. Excluding food and energy, June’s core CPI matched May’s 0.3% gain, which was the largest monthly increase since the summer of 2008. The core rate showed little change all last year, starting 2010 with the first m/m decline since 1982. In June, higher motor vehicle and apparel prices accounted for the larger-than-expected gain. The y/y core rate rose to an 18-month high of 1.6% from a record low of 0.6% last October. The 3-month rate was 2.9% (saar), climbing steadily from October’s 0.4%. That’s the biggest gain since August 2008.

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