Monday, April 9, 2012

US Employment


The government’s disappointing employment report for March supports the notion that seasonal factors and mild winter weather boosted employment during January and February, so that March was the payback month. If that is so, then why not simply average the three months to see what’s really happening in the labor market? The results suggest that the labor market is improving. Consider the following:

(1) The three-month average gain of payroll employment remains solid. Payrolls rose 211,700 per month on average during Q1-2012 vs. 164,000 during Q4-2011 and 127,700 during Q3-2011. Private-sector payrolls rose 210,300 on average during Q1 according to the official tally, in line with the 207,000 average gain for the payrolls tracked by ADP.

(2) The index of aggregate weekly hours worked for total private industries rose at a solid pace during Q1. It was up 3.7% (saar), following increases of 2.5% during Q4-2011 and 1.1% during Q3-2011.

(3) The household employment survey is up 414,700 per month on average over the past three months. That compares to gains of 227,700 during Q4-2011 and 240,700 during Q3-2011.

(4) According to the household survey, full-time employment rose 882,000 during March! That’s not a typo, and that’s after it rose 563,000 during February. On the other hand, part-time employment fell 664,000 during March after falling 163,000 during February. Full-time employment is up 4.8 million since its latest cyclical trough during December 2009 to the highest level since the start of 2009.

Also consider the latest batch of other employment indicators:
(5) During March, initial unemployment claims averaged 361,750, falling steadily from September’s average of 410,500. That’s a clear sign that the pace of firing is continuing to decline.
(6) A monthly employment index, which can be constructed from the available regional surveys conducted by the Fed districts and purchasing managers associations, remains strong. So far for March, data are available for the regions around the following cities: Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond. The average of these regional indexes fell from 14.5 during February to 12.2 last month. That’s still a relatively high reading.
(7) On Wednesday, Gallup reported a four-point jump in the polling firm’s Job Creation Index from 14 in February to 18 in March. That’s the best reading since August 2008. The latest poll also found that the pace of hiring is picking up: “The March Job Creation Index reflects 35% of U.S. adult workers saying their employers are hiring and expanding the size of their workforces, and 17% saying their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of the workforces. While the percentage letting go matches what Gallup found in January, the percentage hiring is at a 42-month high, last seen in September 2008.”

(8) The employment component of the national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI) jumped from 53.2 in February to 56.1 in March, the best reading since last June. The nonmanufacturing survey’s employment index increased from 55.7 in February to 56.7 in March. The average of the M-PMI and NM-PMI employment indexes rose to 56.4 in March, the highest since last June.

(9) Wednesday’s ADP report also confirmed that the labor market remained strong during March. During Q1, the average gain was 207,000, little changed from Q4’s 211,700 and considerably above the 99,000 average during Q3 of last year.

Today’s Morning Briefing: A Positive Spin
(1) Employment looks good, on average. (2) Full-time employment soaring! (3) The weight of the employment evidence is upbeat. (4) What should we be rooting for: QE3 or jobs? (5) Goldilocks on ice. (6) The déjà vu scenario for 2012. (7) Central banks are running out of ammo and into inflation flak. (8) What if the Republicans take it all? (9) Is little guidance bullish or bearish? (More for subscribers.)

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