Tuesday, February 12, 2013

China (Excerpt)

The Chinese have the will and the way to stimulate growth. Commercial bank loans in China soared $173 billion during January, the biggest m/m increase since January 2010. M1 and M2 growth rate spiked up to 15.3% and 15.9% y/y, respectively, during January. In other words, the Chinese are doing it again: pumping up liquidity to boost their economic growth, much as they did in late 2008 and early 2009.

At about the same time as Chinese authorities encouraged their banks to lend more to boost domestic growth, Japan’s new government promised to deliver yet another round of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. No wonder that the stock markets of China and Japan are up 31.4% and 31.3%, respectively, from their late-2012 lows. Stock markets are also soaring in neighboring countries such as Australia, Indonesia, Thailand, and The Philippines.

Today's Morning Briefing: Hot & Sour. (1) Macro picture improving for global growth, revenues, and earnings. (2) Tracking global growth with oil demand, production, and exports. (3) Emerging economies are doing most of the heavy lifting. (4) Mixed bag for EM stocks. (5) Some EMs can decouple from advanced economies better than others. (6) Brazil and India have some issues. (7) China has lots of bank loans. (8) Japan joins the easing party in Asia. (9) India's woes. (10) Raining on Brazil's carnival. (More for subscribers.)

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