Thursday, September 26, 2013

Jobs Are Less Hard To Get (excerpt)

There was a dip in the Consumer Confidence Index in September. However, the percentage of respondents to this survey who agreed that “jobs are hard to get” dropped to 32.7%, the lowest reading since September 2008. This isn’t a surprise since this series is highly correlated with initial unemployment claims, which is down to a new cyclical low on a four-week-average basis.

The jobs-hard-to-get series is also highly correlated with the unemployment rate, which could fall below 7.0% sooner than widely expected, especially by members of the FOMC. That could be interesting since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at his June 19 press conference that QE would be terminated by the time the jobless rate fell to 7%. He seemed to back off from that assessment during his press conference last week on September 18.

Today's Morning Briefing: Breaking Bad. (1) Bad things might not happen. (2) Middle East always risky, but not imminently so for markets. (3) If German court rules against OMT, Draghi ready with more LTRO. (4) Oil and bonds going off the boil. (5) The Fed’s super-easy "BDY Troika" in no rush to taper. (6) Another upbeat German indicator. (7) Improving jobs-hard-to-get survey sees jobless rate under 7% soon. (8) Analysts raising revenue estimates. (9) Bulls charging out of correction camp could mean a correction is coming. (10) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Industrials. (More for subscribers.)

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