Tuesday, September 10, 2013

OECD Leading Indicators Mostly Looking Up (excerpt)

Almost on a daily basis recently, it seems that more and more global economic indicators are confirming that global economic growth is picking up. I’ve been especially encouraged by the OECD Leading Indicators, which have actually been rebounding since August 2012 and rose in July to the best level since April 2011.

The comebacks have been especially impressive for the US (101.1 in July), Japan (101.1), and Europe (100.4). Within Europe, leading the way higher are Ireland (102.1), Greece (102.0), Spain (101.8), Portugal (101.2), the UK (101.0), and Germany (100.4).

The global laggards are commodity-producers Australia (99.8) and Canada (99.6). The BRICs are still mostly losing altitude: Brazil (98.9), Russia (99.3), India (97.1), and China (99.4).

Today's Morning Briefing: 2014 In 2014? (1) Time to think about the end of next year. (2) A mini anxiety attack and mini relief rally. (3) The biggest relief may be better global growth. (4) Revenues outlook improving. (5) Analysts see upside for profit margins. (6) Raising our 2014 S&P 500 earnings estimate. (7) Now forecasting $120 in 2014 and $130 in 2015. (8) $130 x 15.5 = 2014. (9) Global leading indicators looking up for US, Japan, & Europe. Down for BRICs. (10) Good news out of China and Japan. (11) Europe’s recovery is a slow go. (More for subscribers.)

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