Thursday, January 23, 2014

Global Industrial Production (excerpt)

A review of the latest global economic indicators and analysts’ consensus expectations for the revenues of the major regional MSCI indexes confirms that the IMF latest world economic outlook is pointing in the right direction. World industrial production (excluding construction) rose to a record high during November. It increased 3.6% y/y, up from a recent low of 1.2% during February 2013, and the fastest since May 2012.

Industrial production in the advanced economies rose to a cyclical high during November, but remains 6.0% below the January 2008 record high. However, its growth rate is up to 3.3% y/y from a recent low of minus 1.4% during October 2012. The comparable series for the emerging economies has been rising to new record highs since September 2009. However, its growth rate was relatively weak at 3.9% during November.

Today's Morning Briefing: World Tour. (1) The consensus forecast. (2) No serious objections. (3) The IMF worries about deflation but doesn’t predict it. (4) Advice to Fed: Temper taper. (5) Advice to ECB: More liquidity. (6) Improving outlook. (7) Global production rising faster, led by advanced economies. (8) World MSCI revenues expected to grow 4%-5%. (9) US economy strong enough for more tapering. (10) UK is best in class. (11) Japan might grow faster than IMF expects. (12) Subpar recovery for Eurozone. (13) Severe profit margin compression in emerging economies. (More for subscribers.)

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