Thursday, October 30, 2014

Trick or Treat? (excerpt)

As I’ve often observed, the current bull market has been a series of panic attacks followed by big relief rallies. Last year and this year, the panic attacks were less severe and shorter than those from 2009-2012. That’s until October’s severe, but short panic attack. Just this year alone, the list of anxiety-provoking events has been a long one: Emerging markets mini crisis (January 23), Crimea invasion (February 28), Yellen rate-hike scare (March 19), momentum stocks meltdown (April 3), ISIS invasion of Iraq (June 10), Portuguese bank panic (July 10), Malaysian jet crisis (July 17), sanctions imposed on Russia (July 29), and the global growth and Ebola scares (September 30). And the year isn’t even over yet. So far, the trick to this bull market is not to panic. Investors who haven’t panicked have had quite a treat, with the S&P 500 up 193% since March 9, 2009.

Today's Morning Briefing: Mission Accomplished. (1) No surprises. (2) QE gets credit from its proud conceivers. (3) The right message. (4) Is inflation back on right track as Fed claims? (5) Harry Truman and the Fed’s two-handed economists. (6) Does forward guidance make sense, or is it nonsense? (7) Running out on “considerable time” on March 18, maybe? (8) Gradual normalization ahead or “one and done?” (9) Sentiment roller coaster, panic attacks, dips, and relief rallies. (10) Lots of earnings weakness across most MSCI sectors overseas. (11) Focus on overweight-rated S&P 500 Health Care. (More for subscribers)

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