Monday, February 9, 2015

Revisions Boosting Payrolls (excerpt)

Ignore January’s payroll employment gain of 257,000. The number, which was reported on Friday along with lots of other employment data, will be revised probably higher early next month when February’s jobs data are released. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the latest monthly payroll numbers, the previous two months are always revised. I have often observed that the numbers tend to be revised downwards during recessions and upwards during expansions.

Sure enough, November was revised higher for a second time by 70,000, following the first upward revision of 32,000. With a preliminary increase of 321,000, November is now showing a whopping gain of 423,000. December’s number was revised up by 77,000 to 329,000, and will probably be revised up again when February’s data are reported early next March. Revisions added 457,000 to last year’s 3.12 million jump in payrolls (December/December), the best full year since 1999.

Today's Morning Briefing: Revise That. (1) Game changer? (2) One-and-done vs. normalization. (3) Yellen’s semi-annual testimony should be interesting. (4) Payrolls tend to be revised higher during expansions. (5) Labor force soared in January after long-term jobless insurance terminated. (6) Earned Income Proxy at new record high. (7) Wage gains boosted by hike in minimum wage, but remain subdued. (8) Old Normal for employment and New Normal for wages? (9) GDP and productivity are puzzling. (10) Go Global outperforming so far this year. (11) “Unbroken” (+ +). (More for subscribers.)

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