Tuesday, November 27, 2012

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations

The good news is that industry analysts may be ready to take a rest over the rest of the year after cutting their S&P 500 earnings expectations during October’s Q3 earnings season. They continued to lower their estimates for Q4 during the week of November 22, but they did less of that for the four quarters of next year.

Their 2013 estimate edged down last week, but should start to stabilize around $113 through the end of the year and until the next earnings season during January. For industry analysts, the long term is 2014, and their estimate for that year edged up to $127 last week, a projected increase of about 12% y/y. So while forward earnings are showing signs of stalling recently, they should be moving to new highs again if 2014 estimates hold up.

Today's Morning Briefing: Woe Is Us! (1) The bull gets no respect. (2) Will the bull hit the wall or climb it if we fall off the cliff? (3) Why Bill Gross is wrong about the death of the equity cult. (4) Professor Gordon’s new normal on life support. (5) Was the old normal really abnormal? (6) The fourth industrial revolution. (7) Grantham’s Malthusian musings. (8) Reinhart-Rogoff again. (9) Bullish contrarians should be delighted. (10) Earnings outlook remains bright despite recent estimate cuts. (11) “Lincoln” ( + + +). (More for subscribers.)

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