Tuesday, March 12, 2013

On the Road Again (Excerpt)

A favorite country song of mine is Willie Nelson’s “On the Road Again.” It’s been my theme song since the beginning of the year. Today, I’ll be visiting with our accounts in Miami. Then I will be doing the same in California over the rest of the week. While I always enjoy meeting with our accounts, it’s more fun when the economic news is good and stock prices are rising, especially into record territory. Our Second Recovery scenario is on track, and so are our bullish targets of 1565 before mid-year and 1665 by the end of the year for the S&P 500.

Truckers are on the road again too. Employment in transportation and warehousing has increased 88,000 over the past 12 months. Truck tonnage rose 6.5% y/y during January, the best gain in more than a year.

The “Dow Theory” paradigm remains bullish as both the DJIT and S&P 500 Transportation Index are making new record highs. The latest earnings and valuation metrics for the S&P 500 Transportation sector show forward revenues and earnings are at record highs.

Today's Morning Briefing: On the Road Again. (1) Playing country music backwards. (2) Willie Nelson and the economy. (3) Second Recovery scenario on track. (4) Employment rebounding. (5) So are housing and construction jobs. (6) Transportation stocks are cruising to new highs. (7) Restocking, and borrowing to do so. (8) Sentiment is wildly neutral. (9) Financial press advises investors to curb their enthusiasm. (10) Shiller says: “Who Knows Why?” (11) Analysts are rationally exuberant about earnings. (12) Valuation turning more exuberant too. (13) The secular bull case. (More for subscribers.)

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