Monday, March 4, 2013

S&P 500 Revenues (Excerpt)

When the current bull was a youngster during 2009, the bears growled that the rebound in earnings back then was all attributable to cost cutting. They were very pessimistic about the outlook for revenues. I was among the optimists. 

So far, so good. S&P 500 revenues per share bottomed during Q1-2009 and are up 30.2% through Q4-2012, and 5.9% y/y. I also track revenues for the S&P 500 Industrial Composite, which excludes Transportation, Financials, and Utilities. On a per-share basis, it is up 42.4% over this same period, and 4.4% y/y. Both measures are at record highs. I am predicting that revenues will increase 5% this year and next year. 

As of the week of 2/21, industry analysts were predicting that S&P 500 revenues will increase 3.1% this year and 5.0% next year. Forward revenues, the time-weighted average of these two forecasts, rose to a new cyclical high. 

Today's Morning Briefing: Happy Anniversary! (1) Jumping the gun. (2) So close, and not so far. (3) Is sentiment too bullish? Short answer: Nope. (4) Bull/Bear Ratio works better at bottoms than tops. (5) Four years ago, skeptics doubted revenues could grow. (6) Must profit margins revert? Yes, but no rush. (7) Forward earnings at record highs yet again for S&P 500/400/600. (8) S&P 500 Blue Angels flying high. (9) Still targeting 1665. (More for subscribers.)

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