Sunday, March 24, 2013

US Petroleum (Excerpt)

Leading the recent strength in the US economy is the long-delayed rebound in the housing industry.The Energy Revolution is also boosting economic activity. US crude oil production has soared by nearly 1.0 mbd over the past 27 weeks through mid-March. I am now tracking weekly production data by states, especially Texas (which is up 0.9 mbd over the past 52 weeks) and North Dakota (up 0.3 mbd).

US exports of petroleum products rose to a new record high of 3.2 mbd in mid-March. Those exports will most likely continue to increase as more domestically produced oil flows down to refineries along the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, US net imports of crude oil and petroleum products, currently at 6.7 mbd, should continue to decline, as they have been since peaking at a record 13.6 mbd during November 2005.

In recent meetings with some of our accounts, I’ve detected some skepticism about the Energy Independence theme touted by the secular bulls, including yours truly. The skeptics note that old wells don’t end well. In other words, fracking them yields more oil for a very short time before they are depleted. That’s why I am starting to monitor weekly oil production data by state.

Today's Morning Briefing: Crisis Champ. (1) Oscar for best crisis management. (2) Worst crisis managers. (3) Panics have been buying opportunities. (4) The mouse that roared. (5) US leading indicators are looking up. (6) Gushing over gushing oil. (7) Monitoring depletion. (8) Making nice in DC and Jerusalem. (9) China reforming again. (10) Time out for Little Kim. (11) Performance Derby turned defensive last week. (12) Risk On again post-Cyprus? (More for subscribers.)

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