The S&P 500 is highly correlated with the inverse of the four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims, which dropped to 346,750 during the week of March 9. That’s the lowest reading since March 2008. The S&P 500 is even more highly correlated with our Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI), which includes jobless claims. Our FSMI also includes the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the CRB raw industrials spot price index. It is up by 6.7% over the past nine weeks to the highest reading since November 2007.
Today's Morning Briefing: On the Margin. (1) Will depositors get toasted in Cyprus? (2) Don’t mess with Putin’s stash. (3) A deal will be done. (4) Aging bull still has legs. (5) Bullish: Jobless claims lowest since March 2008. (6) Our FSMI supports the bull. (7) Housing is following our “Second Recovery” script. (8) CoreLogic reports fewer underwater homes. (9) Forward earnings at new highs again. (10) S&P 500 margin in holding pattern. (11) Global oil demand at new high. (12) Non-OPEC supplies at new high too. (More for subscribers.)