There was widespread disappointment with August’s payroll employment gain of only 142,000. In addition, the previous two months were revised downwards by 28,000. This weakness simply doesn’t jibe with lots of other labor market indicators showing very low layoffs, plenty of job openings, and lots of national and regional business surveys with solid employment indicators. This more upbeat view of the economy was confirmed by our Earned Income Proxy (EIP), which is aggregate hours worked multiplied by average hourly earnings in the private sector. It is highly correlated with private wages and salaries in personal income. Our EIP rose 0.4% m/m to yet another new record high last month, auguring well for consumer spending.
Today's Morning Briefing: Selfies. (1) Half of US adults are now single. (2) More one-person households. (3) Childless singles are more self-centered in the way they spend. (4) Increase in singles is exaggerating income inequality. (5) They earn less, but have fewer mouths to feed. (6) Singles tend to rent. (7) Are they more liberal or conservative? (8) Weak August payrolls distracts from improvements in Yellen’s dashboard and strength in earned income. (9) Euro trashed by ECB. (10) “The Last of Robin Hood” (+). (More for subscribers.)
Today's Morning Briefing: Selfies. (1) Half of US adults are now single. (2) More one-person households. (3) Childless singles are more self-centered in the way they spend. (4) Increase in singles is exaggerating income inequality. (5) They earn less, but have fewer mouths to feed. (6) Singles tend to rent. (7) Are they more liberal or conservative? (8) Weak August payrolls distracts from improvements in Yellen’s dashboard and strength in earned income. (9) Euro trashed by ECB. (10) “The Last of Robin Hood” (+). (More for subscribers.)
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