Thursday, September 25, 2014

Global Crude Oil Demand Growth Slowing (excerpt)

The latest global crude oil demand and supply data from Oil Market Intelligence (OMI) provides additional evidence of the slowdown of global growth this year. While world oil demand rose during August to a record high of 92.7mbd (using the 12-month average to smooth out the volatile monthly data), it was up just 0.8% y/y. That’s down from a recent peak of 1.7% last September, and the lowest growth since May 2012.

Demand growth among the advanced economies of the OECD remained slightly negative for the fifth consecutive month. It has been mostly negative since September 2011. Among the other economies, growth was 1.9% during August, the lowest since September 2009.

By the way, I also track the ratio of global crude oil demand to supply using the OMI data. It starts in 1994. Our ratio tends to track the y/y percent change in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil. It has been edging lower in recent months, coinciding with the weakness in Brent.

Today's Morning Briefing: Cyclical Sectors & the M-PMI. (1) US is hot. Europe is not. (2) Germany’s indicators are falling. (3) US flash M-PMI strong and could be bearish for P/Es of cyclical sectors, or not. (4) Valuation multiples more likely to move sideways for cyclicals, which could be driven higher by earnings. (5) Global oil demand at record high, but growth is decelerating. (6) Both OECD and non-OECD oil demand growth rates slowing. (7) Demand/supply ratio for crude oil has turned bearish lately. (8) Focus on underweight-rated S&P 500 Energy. (More for subscribers.)

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