Monday, September 15, 2014

Retail Sales Revised Higher (excerpt)

Preliminary data showed that retail sales stalled during June (0.2% m/m) and July (0.0). I wasn’t surprised that June and July were revised up to 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, last week when the Commerce Department also reported a 0.6% gain in August to a new record high. Maybe last month’s gain will be revised higher too.

I wasn’t surprised because the retail sales series is now even more closely in line with our rising Earned Income Proxy, which tracks the private sector’s wages and salaries in personal income. In addition, forward earnings for the S&P Consumer Discretionary Retailing Industry rose to yet another record high in early September. Furthermore, the Consumer Sentiment Index rose in mid-September, led by a 4.3-point jump in the expectations component to a 14-month high of 75.6. The present situation component eased a bit to 98.5, remaining near August’s cyclical high of 99.8.

Today's Morning Briefing: A Brief History of Considerable Time. (1) Fed will normalize once the economy has escaped. (2) Are we there yet? (3) Charles Evans saw it coming last year. (4) “Considerable time” has been around for a considerable time. So has NZIRP. (5) Time to drop time? (6) The case for 2.5%-3.0% bond yields. (7) Hilsenrath’s take. (8) Yellen will soften the blow. (9) How can we measure escape velocity? (10) Another solid batch of US economic indicators. (11) Upward revisions give retail sales a boost. (12) Focus on market-weight-rated S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Retailers. (13) “The Drop” (+ +). (More for subscribers.)

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